Plain-language questions
Ask for weighted pipeline per month, customer or product in the SQL Explorer with AI. The AI writes the SQL, you see the query and run it yourself; the AI only receives metadata.
KPI · Sales
Weighted pipeline: formula and example.
Weighted pipeline is the sum of all open deals, with each deal amount multiplied by the probability that it will be won. This gives a more realistic revenue expectation than the full pipeline value. Weighted pipeline is often used as a simple sales forecast.
Weighted pipeline formula
Sum of (deal amount × probability) across all open deals
Worked example
Acme Groothandel has 10 deals worth €300,000 at a 75% probability, 20 deals worth €420,000 at 50% and 32 deals worth €520,000 at 20%. The weighted pipeline is €225,000 + €210,000 + €104,000 = €539,000, compared with an unweighted pipeline of €1,240,000.
Fictitious figures for Acme Groothandel, a sample wholesaler.
How to read this KPI
Weighted pipeline estimates the revenue you can expect from current opportunities. Compare it with your sales target and, afterwards, with the revenue you actually won. If the weighted pipeline is consistently higher than what you win, your probabilities are set too optimistically.
Pitfalls with weighted pipeline
- Fixing probabilities per stage without checking them against your actual win rate per stage.
- Letting reps fill in probabilities by gut feeling, so the same stage gets different percentages.
- Ignoring the expected close date, so deals for next year count towards this quarter's forecast.
SQL & DAX
Calculating weighted pipeline in SQL and DAX
Two examples on a fictitious data warehouse for Acme Groothandel: a PostgreSQL query and a measure for a Power BI model. Adjust table and column names to your own model.
-- probability als fractie (0-1)
SELECT stage,
COUNT(*) AS open_deals,
SUM(amount) AS pipeline_value,
SUM(amount * probability) AS weighted_pipeline
FROM deals
WHERE status = 'open'
GROUP BY stage
ORDER BY weighted_pipeline DESC;Weighted Pipeline =
CALCULATE(
SUMX(Deals, Deals[Amount] * Deals[Probability]),
Deals[Status] = "open"
)
Weighted Share =
DIVIDE([Weighted Pipeline], CALCULATE(SUM(Deals[Amount]), Deals[Status] = "open"))In ENABLE
Tracking this KPI in ENABLE
In your Power BI dashboard
Define the KPI as a measure in your Power BI model and show it in the portal, with "Last refreshed" next to it. Access profiles and optional row-level security decide who sees which figures.
Custom dashboards (pilot)
Add the KPI as a tile to a custom dashboard, compared with last year. The Dashboard Builder is a pilot and can be switched on per client.
Monthly targets
With the built-in Targets app you set a target for the KPI per month, so you see actuals and target side by side.
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
How do you calculate a weighted pipeline?
Multiply each open deal's amount by its probability and add up the results. A €10,000 deal at 50% therefore counts as €5,000. The total across all deals is the weighted pipeline.
How do you set the probability for each pipeline stage?
The best basis is your own history: what share of the deals that ever reached that stage were eventually won? Many CRM systems come with default percentages, but these rarely match your sales process exactly. Review the percentages at least once a year.
Is a weighted pipeline the same as a sales forecast?
A weighted pipeline is a simple type of sales forecast, but not the only one. Many teams combine it with a per-rep estimate or with expected close dates. At the very least, filter the weighted pipeline to deals expected to close within the forecast period.
Further reading
- KPI librarySales KPIs: formulas and examplesSales KPIs measure how healthy your pipeline is and how well it turns into revenue. The data comes from your CRM, combined with invoiced revenue from your accounting system.Read more
- ResourcesHow to build a KPI dashboard: steps and examplesA KPI dashboard is an overview of the key figures you use to steer towards your goals, such as revenue, margin, on-time delivery or absenteeism. A good KPI dashboard does not start with the software, but with the decisions it needs to support. You then choose a limited number of KPIs, define them, sketch the dashboard and only then build it.Read more
- SolutionPower BI dashboard portal: share dashboards securelyShare your Power BI dashboards securely in your own portal, with role-based access.Read more
Use AI on your own data. Securely, and without the headache.
In an online demo we show how ENABLE makes your data securely available and how you build on it: describing an app in the AI Builder, plain-language questions, dashboards and APIs. And how we set it up and manage it for you.